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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2015 Oct 17 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
17 Oct 2015	113	016
18 Oct 2015	117	015
19 Oct 2015	120	009

Bulletin

Nine low-level C-class flares were recorded, the strongest a C4.3 flare from NOAA 2435 peaking at 13:24UT. There may still be an active region at the southeast limb trailing NOAA 2435. NOAA 2434 lost its small delta southeast of the main spot, but developed another one to the north. NOAA 2436 shows some magnetic complexity in its trailing portion. No earth- directed coronal mass ejections have been observed.

There's a chance on an M-class flare from any of the active regions NOAA 2434, 2435, or 2436.

Solar wind speed declined from 400 km/s to 350 km/s, with no sign of a high speed stream (HSS) from the trans-equatorial coronal hole (CH). Bz ranged between -5 and +7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly directed towards the Sun (negative). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed. An equatorial CH will start transiting the central meridian later today and its HSS may affect the geomagnetic environment late on 20 or on 21 October.

Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a chance on an active episode.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 072, basierend auf 05 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 16 Oct 2015

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	109
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	007
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	007
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	051 - Basierend auf 15 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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