Archiv von Donnerstag, 5 November 2015 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2015 Nov 05 1230 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
05 Nov 2015	109	017
06 Nov 2015	107	010
07 Nov 2015	105	031

Bulletin

Flaring activity was concentrated at the very beginning of the period. NOAA 2445 produced an M2.5 flare peaking at 12:03UT. It was associated with a non earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME). NOAA 2443 produced an M3.7 flare peaking at 13:52UT. The associated CME had an earth- directed component with impact expected on 07 November. Both active regions have lost their magnetic delta, but still show some magnetic mixing. NOAA 2448, near the northeast limb, produced the only other flare of the period (C1 at 22:53UT). No flaring above the C1 level has been recorded since midnight. An active region is approaching the southeast limb. No other earth-directed CMEs have been observed.

C-class flares are expected, with a chance on an isolated M-class flare.

Earth remained under the influence of the high speed stream (HSS) of the equatorial coronal hole (CH). Solar wind speed declined from about 700 km/s to its current value just above 500 km/s. Bz varied between -5 and +8 nT, being mostly positive till about 06:00UT, then turning negative till about 10:00UT. The interplanetary magnetic field has been directed away from the Sun since about 20:00UT. Minor geomagnetic storming persisted till early in the period (15UT). From then on, quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were recorded.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected, with still a chance on a minor storming episode as Earth is exiting the HSS of the equatorial CH. Minor to major storming is possible on 07 November with the expected arrival of the 04 November CME.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 091, basierend auf 17 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 04 Nov 2015

Wolf-Zahl Catania	115
10cm Solarflux	114
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	026
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	030
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	105 - Basierend auf 23 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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