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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2015 Dec 21 1235 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
21 Dec 2015	126	021
22 Dec 2015	133	006
23 Dec 2015	138	005

Bulletin

An unnumbered sunspot group that just appeared at the east solar limb produced the most of the flaring activity in the past 24 hours, including 9 C-class flares and 2 M-class flares. The strongest one was the M2.8 flare peaking at 01:03 UT today. It was accompanied only with a narrow CME that will not arrive at the Earth. We expect more M-class flares from this group, with a small chance for an X-class event. The Earth is now inside the trailing part of the ICME that arrived after the interplanetary shock detected on December 19. Currently the solar wind speed is around 360 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude is around 17 nT. The north-south IMF component Bz just turned northward, so the geomagnetic storm conditions ended, with Dourbes reporting K = 3 and NOAA reporting Kp = 4 during the last interval. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are probable in the coming hours, with isolated intervals of minor storm possible (although unlikely) in case of Bz turning consistently southward again.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 017, basierend auf 08 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 20 Dec 2015

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	117
AK Chambon La Forêt	106
AK Wingst	065
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	070
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	019 - Basierend auf 20 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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