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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2016 Jan 28 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
28 Jan 2016	118	011
29 Jan 2016	119	013
30 Jan 2016	120	011

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low, but increasing. The largest flare was a C5.3 class flare. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2488 (Macintosh class:Dao; Mag. type:Beta) has been most active, producing the C5.3 class flare, which peaked at 05:23 UT. ARs 2489 (Dki; Beta) and 2490 (Dro; Beta) have shown some low level activity. ARs 2488 and 2489 have shown some evidence of flux emergence and cancellation in HMI observations, this may increase flaring activity. There is currently a large positive Northern polar coronal hole in the Western hemisphere which is expected to increase solar wind speeds. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares. The solar wind speed slowly decreased throughout yesterday (27-Jan-2016) to around 320 km/s. As we passed a sector boundary this morning at 06:00 UT the speed jumped to around 370 km/s, from which point the speed has plateaued. The total magnetic field strength has remained stable around 9 nT. The Bz component was largely positive yesterday, fluctuating between -5 and 5 nT. However, the field turned negative this morning at 06:00 UT and has remained mainly negative around -5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 0-3 (NOAA) and local K index 0-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A positive polar coronal hole is currently positioned in the Western hemisphere of the Sun and the resulting high-speed stream (HSS) is expected to enhance solar wind speeds today and tomorrow, with a negative Bz this may increase geo-activity over the next couple of days.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 069, basierend auf 13 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 27 Jan 2016

Wolf-Zahl Catania	099
10cm Solarflux	113
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	004
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	003
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	080 - Basierend auf 15 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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