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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2016 Jul 11 1230 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
11 Jul 2016	094	007
12 Jul 2016	093	008
13 Jul 2016	091	007

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. No significant flares have been recorded. Active Region (AR) 2564 (Macintosh class:Dai; Mag. type:Beta-Gamma) has been quiet, but has shown some evidence of flux emergence in HMI magnetogram observations, this may increase flaring activity. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. There is currently a large northern polar coronal hole extending to low latitudes located near central longitudes. This region will rotate into the Western hemisphere in the coming days. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares.

The solar wind speed has decreased from around 580 to 500 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated around 5 nT. The Bz component fluctuated around 0 nT, ranging between -5 and +4 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. The large northern polar coronal hole, will move into the Western hemisphere over the coming days and may increase solar wind speeds. However, over the next couple of days solar wind speeds are expected to decrease, with a small chance of a small high speed stream (HSS) hitting the Earth. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain quiet, with the small chance of the HSS enhancing activity.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 065, basierend auf 24 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 10 Jul 2016

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	094
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	014
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	013
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	050 - Basierend auf 29 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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