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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2016 Jul 16 1230 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
16 Jul 2016	104	009
17 Jul 2016	103	010
18 Jul 2016	102	021

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been increasing. The largest flare was a C6.8 class flare. Active Region (AR) 2567 (Macintosh class:Dac; Mag. type:Beta-Gamma-Delta) has been the most active producing the C6.8 class flare, peaking at 07:04 UT this morning. The region shows evidence of flux emergence and cancellation in HMI magnetogram observations, this region is likely to produce further flaring activity. AR 2564 has also produced a couple of C class flares, and AR 2565 B class flares. Other regions appear stable. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. There is currently a large +ve polarity northern polar coronal hole extending to low latitudes located on the Western limb of the Sun. Solar activity is expected to remain at medium levels over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares. The solar wind speed has been slowly decreasing from around around 650 km/s to 575 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has remained around 4 nT, but jumped up to 6 nT at 11:00 UT this morning. The Bz component fluctuated around 0 nT, ranging between -4 and +4 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed has been decreasing following the High Speed Stream (HSS) created by the large northern polar coronal hole close to the Western limb. If the enhanced wind speeds are coupled with negative Bz this may increase geomagnetic activity over the next couple of days.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 071, basierend auf 10 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 15 Jul 2016

Wolf-Zahl Catania	113
10cm Solarflux	102
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	013
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	014
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	080 - Basierend auf 30 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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