Archiv von Dienstag, 11 Oktober 2016 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2016 Oct 11 1237 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
11 Oct 2016	103	006
12 Oct 2016	103	007
13 Oct 2016	103	007

Bulletin

Quiet solar conditions were recorded with X-ray flux remaining below C level and just a couple of minor B-flares occurring. All regions on disk appear stable or in decay while a new region is rotating on disk in the North-East (Catania group 46, NOAA unnumbered). Quiet conditions are expected with a chance for a C flare occurrence. Solar proton flux levels were at background levels and expected to remain so. SoHO/LASCO coronagraph images show a CME onset from around 10:00UT October 10 onwards. The ejection is primarily Southward with an angular extent of around 150 degrees. The event is backsided and will hence not be geoeffective. No other significant CME onsets were recorded.

Solar wind conditions were nominal with solar wind speed increasing slightly from around 360 to around 400 km/s. Total magnetic field was in the 4-8.5nT range with a variable North South component. The magnetic field phi angle turned into the negative sector around 18:00UT. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain nominal with later on October 13 the possible passage of the October 9 CME which should only involve a small velocity increase, but may be accompanied with magnetic field perturbations. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to active (local K Dourbes 0-4, NOAA Kp 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet to unsettled with later on October 13 possibly minor to moderate geomagnetic storm levels associated with the possible CME arrival.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 067, basierend auf 15 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 10 Oct 2016

Wolf-Zahl Catania	097
10cm Solarflux	102
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	013
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	013
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	071 - Basierend auf 29 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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