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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2016 Oct 25 1230 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Major magstorm expected (A>=50 or K>=6)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
25 Oct 2016	075	038
26 Oct 2016	075	050
27 Oct 2016	076	034

Bulletin

NOAA 2603 remained the sole sunspot region currently visible on the solar disk. It developed some additional sunspots in its trailing portion and was the source of a B2.0 flare peaking at 01:05UT, the strongest event of the period. Some filament and prominence eruptions were observed over the last 24 hours, but the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) had no earth-directed component.

Quiet flaring conditions are expected to continue, with a small chance on an isolated C-class flare.

The anticipated co-rotating interaction region (CIR) preceding the high speed stream (HSS) from the huge coronal hole (CH) arrived around 08UT and was quickly followed by a steep increase of the solar wind speed from its pre-CIR range between 380 and 420 km/s to its current value around 630 km/s (DSCOVR data). Bz, which was mostly negative over the last 24 hours, started strong fluctuations between -18 and +10 nT from about 10UT onwards. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly directed away from the Sun (positive). Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were recorded, with Kp at minor storming during the 03-06UT and 09-12UT interval.

Over the next 24-48 hours, wind speeds are expected to increase to well over 700 km/s, with Bz continuing to make occasional strong negative excursions. Active to moderate storm conditions are expected, a major storming interval (K-index = 7) not excluded.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 017, basierend auf 10 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 24 Oct 2016

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	018
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	015
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	015 - Basierend auf 12 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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