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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2017 Mar 27 1318 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
27 Mar 2017	079	046
28 Mar 2017	081	014
29 Mar 2017	080	006

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has increased. There have been two C-class flares. The first flare C1.4 peaked around 00.30 UT on 27-Mar-2017 (originated by NOAA AR 2644). The second flare C3.2 peaked at 11:18 UT on 27-Mar-2017 (originated by the returned active region at the eastern solar limb, numbered by Catania as the sunspot group 9). Solar Demon detected an EUV wave associated to the last C3.2 flare, which most probably initiated a narrow CME which will not affect the Earth environment. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain at the slightly elevated levels over the next 24 hours with a significant probability of C-class flares. As expected, the arrival of the high speed stream (HSS) from the huge recurrent negative polarity coronal hole (CH) lead to the episode of a geomagnetic disturbance. Over the past 24 hours, solar wind speed measured by DSCOVR increased from about 355 km/s to 560 km/s, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) ranged between about 14.5 and 12.5 nT. Bz variations also increased (varying mostly between -12 nT and +13 nT). Kp index reached minor storm levels (Kp=5) during 03-09 UT time interval today (27-Mar-2017) , then Kp reached major storm level (Kp=6, ongoing), while values of local K Dourbes index are ranged to (2- 5). Solar wind parameters are expected to grow slightly further. Consequently, active to major storm geomagnetic conditions are possible today and tomorrow. On the day three solar wind parameters are expected to return to the nominal values.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 047, basierend auf 24 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 26 Mar 2017

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	077
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	004
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	003
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	027 - Basierend auf 33 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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