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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2017 Sep 01 1243 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
01 Sep 2017	094	020
02 Sep 2017	094	021
03 Sep 2017	090	009

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity remained low. A fourth sunspot region has emerged and did not show any signature of flaring activity. The other regions are relatively stable, Catania group 43 (NOAA region 2672) and Catania group 47 (NOAA region 2674) produced only B-class flares and narrow not earth-directed CMEs. We expect the solar activity to remain low with a probability of very few sporadic C-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery and the solar protons remains at background level.

Since yesterday, August 31 around 5:00 UT, the Earth is inside the fast solar wind with the speed ranging between 500 and 700 km/s. Over the past 24 hours, the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained below 11 nT with the Bz component fluctuating between -5 and 5 nT.

The geomagnetic conditions were active with a moderate storm (K-Dourbes=6, Kp-NOAA = 5) on August 31 around 10:00 UT, following shortly after by unsettled conditions (K-Dourbes=3) to even lower level (K-Dourbes=2) between September 1, 5:00 and 9:00 UT. Currently, K-Dourbes has raised to level 4. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to fluctuated between unsettled to active conditions for the next 48 h and until the high speed stream has finished. A CME was directed to the west and a glancing blow at the Earth on September 2 without important geomagnetic consequences is possible, although not likely. The faint and slow CME was observed on August 28 (first seen at 17:12 UT on LASCO-C2), originating from Catania group 43 (NOAA region 2672), which was located at 30 degrees west from central median.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 068, basierend auf 24 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 31 Aug 2017

Wolf-Zahl Catania	071
10cm Solarflux	092
AK Chambon La Forêt	046
AK Wingst	027
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	030
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	/// - Basierend auf /// Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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