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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2017 Sep 09 1238 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
09 Sep 2017	115	012
10 Sep 2017	107	017
11 Sep 2017	100	013

Bulletin

Catania sunspot group 46 (NOAA active region 2673) remained active with 4 M flares recorded over the period. The largest was an M3.7 flare peaking at 11:04UT. As this region approaches the limb in the next day, further M flaring must be expected over at least the next 24 hours, with also a significant chance for another X flare. No Earth directed CMEs are visible in coronagraph data.

Around midnight the >10MeV proton flux has dropped below the event threshold of 10 pfu. As Catania group 46 (NOAA active region 2673) remains to be active and is located favourably in terms of magnetic connection to Earth, possible renewed increases in proton fluxes must be anticipated over the next days.

Solar wind saw the final stages of the passage of the September 6 CME. At the start of the period total magnetic field steadily declined from around 17nT to a nominal 5-6nT. Bz, starting the period at a very pronounced -16nT, remained pronounced negative throughout this decline in magnetic field strength. Solar wind speed dropped steadily from around 760km/s to around 680km/s. Solar wind may remain slightly elevated under the possible influence of the negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere.

Geomagnetic conditions started the period at moderate to severe geomagnetic storm levels (local K Dourbes 6, NOAA Kp 8) associated to the prolonged period of pronounced negative Bz values. From September 9 onwards only quiet conditions were reported. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next days.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 071, basierend auf 16 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 08 Sep 2017

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	117
AK Chambon La Forêt	072
AK Wingst	089
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	088
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	098 - Basierend auf 17 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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