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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2019 Oct 18 1230 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
18 Oct 2019	066	007
19 Oct 2019	066	016
20 Oct 2019	066	032

Bulletin

The Sun is spotless and did not produce any flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at only 1%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by ACE varied between about 330 and 420 km/s in the past 24 hours. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly oriented away from the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 6 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected from the second half of October 19 onwards, with the expected arrival of a high speed stream associated with a recurrent, negative polarity, narrow coronal hole that spans from the South pole to the equator.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 18 and the first half of October 19. Active to minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 4-5) are possible in the second half of October 19 and on October 20 (with a chance for moderate storm intervals, K Dourbes = 6), due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream associated with a recurrent, negative polarity, narrow coronal hole that spans from the South pole to the equator.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 000, basierend auf 21 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 17 Oct 2019

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	066
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	007
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	006
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	000 - Basierend auf 28 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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