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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2020 Oct 28 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
28 Oct 2020	082	021
29 Oct 2020	084	019
30 Oct 2020	085	017

Bulletin

NOAA AR 2778 has evolved from beta into beta-gamma magnetic field configuration, also increasing its area and sunspot number. It is the only visible active region on disk. It produced two C-class flares in the past 24 hours, the largest was a C1.5 peaking at 13:41 UT on 27 October. More C-class can be expected, M-class flares are possible.

A filament erupted close to central meridian (around N30 in latitude) at 22:00 UT on 26 October. The related CME could possibly arrive to the Earth on 1 November (estimated time 01:00 UT), since the speed is low (around 300 km/s) a strong geomagnetic impact is not expected.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past 24 hours. It is expected to stay at background levels for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electrons are above the 10^3 pfu threshold, as the Earth is still under the influence of a High Speed Stream (HSS) from a coronal hole (CH). The electrons are expected to stay at elevated levels in the next 24 h.

The speed of the solar wind was fairly constant around 500 km/s in the past 24 hours. The Earth is still inside the HSS from a positive polarity coronal hole. Bz was never below -4 nT and B reached 4 nT. Elevated solar wind speeds are expected for the next 24 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions were mostly unsettled both locally and at planetary levels (Kp = 3, KDourbes = 3). Unsettled to active conditions can be expected in the next 24 hours, as the Earth is still under the influence of the HSS.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 025, basierend auf 17 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 27 Oct 2020

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	082
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	009
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	008
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	042 - Basierend auf 16 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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