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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2021 Feb 23 1233 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
23 Feb 2021	075	020
24 Feb 2021	075	008
25 Feb 2021	074	005

Bulletin

The solar activity has been mostly quiet over the past 24 hours. Region Catania 73/NOAA AR 2803 is forming into a plage. Region Catania 74/NOAA AR 2804 had a low flaring activity while region Catania 75/NOAA 12805 appeared on the southern hemisphere. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low levels for the next 24 hours.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained mainly over the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence remained on moderate levels in the past 24 hours. Both the electron flux and fluence are expected to remain elevated from the possible arrival of the expected CME from Feb. 20, but with a decreasing trend.

Over the past 24 hours, the Earth has remained on the fast solar wind regime. The influence of the two negative polarity southern Coronal Holes (CH) seems to just have past, since the magnetic field polarity switched to positive at about Feb 23 11:00UT. The solar wind speed ranged between 535 km/s and 635 km/s. The total magnetic field ranged between 2 nT and 7 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between -5 nT and 5 nT. A newly emerged negative southern CH is on the visible solar disk. The associated high speed stream should be expected about Feb 26. A possible solar wind shock due to the arrival of the CME on Feb 20 can be expected on Feb 23.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active event early Feb 23 (K Dourbes and Kp=4).They are expected to remain in the same levels in response to the possible shock from the arrival of the CME on Feb 20.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 033, basierend auf 16 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 22 Feb 2021

Wolf-Zahl Catania	026
10cm Solarflux	076
AK Chambon La Forêt	029
AK Wingst	///
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	021
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	019 - Basierend auf 30 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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