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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2021 Mar 04 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
04 Mar 2021	074	009
05 Mar 2021	074	027
06 Mar 2021	074	019

Bulletin

The Sun did not produce any C flares during the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 20%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was mostly above the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours. Moderate values are possible in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at moderate levels during the past 24 hours. There is a chance for moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR decreased from about 615 km/s to about 490 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly oriented towards the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 7 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease further until the expected arrival late on March 4 or on March 5 of a high speed stream associated with a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole that crossed the Central Meridian on March 1.

Quiet to unsettled conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on March 4, 5 and 6, with a chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5) on March 5 and 6.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 030, basierend auf 08 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 03 Mar 2021

Wolf-Zahl Catania	039
10cm Solarflux	074
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	018
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	020
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	032 - Basierend auf 22 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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