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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2021 Jun 19 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
19 Jun 2021	075	003
20 Jun 2021	075	004
21 Jun 2021	076	004

Bulletin

Solar activity remained at very low levels in the last 24 hours. A new active region emerged in the north-west quadrant of the visible solar disc on June 17th. This active region has been stable, has beta magnetic configuration and has now been numbered as NOAA AR2834. Active region NOAA AR2833 (Catania sunspot group 7) has crossed the central meridian, developed trailing spots and changed its underlying magnetic filed configuration to beta-gamma. Nevertheless, it has remained stable and is not expected to produce significant flaring. The X-ray flare activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next 24 hours with a 10% chance for a C-class flare.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux has crossed the 1000 pfu threshold for an extended period of time and is expected to intermittently cross the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate to nominal levels for the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24h the solar wind data (ACE and DSCOVR) remained under the waning influence of the high speed stream (HSS), but is slowly returning towards background slow solar wind conditions. The solar temperature started to decrease and the solar wind speed has declined to 460 km/s. The total magnetic field was undisturbed, weakly varying in the range of 1.6 nT to 5.4 nT with a minimum Bz component -4.3 nT. The orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field remained in the negative sector.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Isolated unsettled periods remain possible.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 013, basierend auf 13 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 18 Jun 2021

Wolf-Zahl Catania	023
10cm Solarflux	077
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	009
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	008
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	019 - Basierend auf 36 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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