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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2021 Jul 01 1254 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
01 Jul 2021	095	018
02 Jul 2021	095	021
03 Jul 2021	093	019

Bulletin

Two C flares were observed from NOAA region 2835, of which a C3.6 flare peaking at 18:15UT. NOAA region 2835 continued to grow and continues to show mixed polarity in the intermediate spots and the leading part. It is classified as beta- gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Bipolar region NOAA 2836 and unipolar region NOAA 2837 are both in decay. Flaring at C level is likely (mostly from NOAA 2835) over the next 24 hours, with also a chance for a possible M flare.

No new Earth directed CMEs have been recorded in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu event threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and electron fluence is expected to initially remain at normal levels during the next days, but may then start rising if enhanced solar wind conditions persist.

Solar wind conditions displayed the expected increase in Solar wind speed due to the forecasted high speed stream. Solar wind speed reached 520km/s by 21UT and has been around 500km/s since then. The magnetic field remained elevated and reached peaks over 13nT with also Bz seeing periods of consistently negative values down to -10nT, though Bz has been positive more recently since 1UT. The persistent increased magnetic field and the variations in magnetic field orientation seem to indicate that the high speed stream is carrying some transients along. This is possibly allready the June 27 CME that was expected later today. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced as the transients are passing. Later, on July 3, there is again a possible CME arrival from the June 29 CME.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active (local K Dourbes 2-4 and NOAA Kp 1-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled with isolated active periods possible.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 053, basierend auf 18 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 30 Jun 2021

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	094
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	017
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	016
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	056 - Basierend auf 30 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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