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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2021 Oct 11 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
11 Oct 2021	084	013
12 Oct 2021	083	032
13 Oct 2021	082	022

Bulletin

NOAA region 2883 produced a C2.3 flare peaking at 23:02 UT on October 10. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 50%, with a slight chance for an M flare from NOAA 2882.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR increased from about 300 to about 400 km/s in the past 24 hours. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field near Earth (IMF) varied between about 1 nT and 12 nT, while its orientation was variable but predominantly away from the Sun. Bz was often below -5 nT. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to start upon the predicted arrival of the October 9 CME, in the second half of October 11 or early on October 12. A high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole is expected to arrive at Earth on October 12. The enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist through October 12 and 13.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 2 and 4; NOAA Kp between 2 and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm levels (K Dourbes = 4-5) are possible on October 11, 12 and 13, with a chance for moderate storm intervals (K Dourbes = 6) on October 11 and 12.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 029, basierend auf 17 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 10 Oct 2021

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	085
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	///
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	010
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	038 - Basierend auf 25 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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