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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2022 Feb 19 1236 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
19 Feb 2022	092	007
20 Feb 2022	098	017
21 Feb 2022	101	015

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels. Catania group 38 (NOAA region 2950) was most active, producing a B8 flare that peaked at 16:27UT, but has since decayed into a plage region. Catania group 33 (NOAA region 2946) also produced low level B-level flaring activity but also showed signs of decay. Catania group 37 (NOAA region 2948) and Catania group 40 (NOAA region 2952) were inactive. A new region began to emerge in the north-east quadrant (N17E45) but is as yet unnumbered. A returning active region is expected to rotate onto the solar disk in the next days, increasing the chance for C-class flares and adding a low probability for M-class flares. Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance C-class flares, especially from the region expected to rotate onto the disk.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly enhanced over the past 24 hours, but was far below the 10pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold in the afternoon of Feb 18 but returned to nominal levels from 20:00UT. The electron flux is expected to remain below this threshold for the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at nominal to moderate levels and is expected to be at nominal levels during the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed ranged between 310 and 380 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field showed a slight enhancement reaching a maximum of 11nT with a minimum Bz of -8nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards from the Sun. The solar wind speed is expected to become enhanced from late on Feb 19 in response to the arrival of the High-Speed Stream (HSS) associated with the extension to the southern polar coronal hole, which began to traverse the central meridian on Feb 16.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled, with an isolated local active interval (NOAA Kp 2-3 and local K Belgium 1-4). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on Feb 19. Active conditions with possible Minor Storm intervals are expected from Feb 20 in response to the arrival of the HSS.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 050, basierend auf 16 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 18 Feb 2022

Wolf-Zahl Catania	051
10cm Solarflux	093
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	006
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	006
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	046 - Basierend auf 16 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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