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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2022 Aug 30 1232 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
30 Aug 2022	131	017
31 Aug 2022	127	016
01 Sep 2022	125	007

Bulletin

There were five M-class flares in the past 24 hours, from NOAA AR 3088. The strongest was an M4.7 flare, peaking at 18:57 UT on 29 August. This region has rotated over the west limb, so we expect its activity (as seen from Earth) to decrease, it could still produce M-class flares and a proton event visible at Earth. NOAA AR 3089 has evolved into a beta-gamma- delta magnetic field configuration; it has potential for M-class flares in the next 24 hours.

No earth directed CMEs were detected in the past 24 hours. A wide CME erupted from AR 3088, but it’s not expected to arrive to the Earth.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is below the 10 pfu mark, and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind around the Earth has been influenced in the last 24 hours by an ICME glancing blow and the effect of the high speed stream from the low latitudinal extension of the southern polar coronal hole. Furthermore, a jump in solar wind speed (from 500 to 600 km/s) was observed (around 23:40 UT on 29 August), together with a spike in low energy electrons and protons (at ACE), this could mark yet a second (brief) ICME glancing blow, expected from the CME of 27 August. The solar wind speed is currently close to 600 km/s, with interplanetary magnetic field magnitudes around 10 nT. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. A shock driven by the CME of 28 August may arrive to the Earth tomorrow.

Active conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours by NOAA Kp going up to 4, and unsettled conditions locally with K_Dourbes up to 3. Over the next 24 hours, active conditions can be expected (with possible minor storm periods).

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 052, basierend auf 21 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 29 Aug 2022

Wolf-Zahl Catania	074
10cm Solarflux	131
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	014
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	015
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	077 - Basierend auf 30 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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