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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2022 Oct 15 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
15 Oct 2022	121	023
16 Oct 2022	119	007
17 Oct 2022	117	022

Bulletin

There are four active regions on the visible disc. With NOAA AR 3112 almost not visible anymore, the solar activity has declined markedly. This AR produced a C1.0 flare peaking at 05:22 UT. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares are possible.

A filament eruption in the southwest quadrant created a CME first seen by LASCO-C2 at 23:12 UT on 14 October. The CME had an apparent angular width of 90 degrees with speeds close to 350 km/s and a possible Earth directed component, with possible arrival on 18 October.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind conditions at the Earth were marked by the ICME arrival corresponding to the 10 October CME, and by the influence of a high speed solar wind stream from a small coronal hole (with negative polarity) in the northern hemisphere. The magnetic field intensity reached 18 nT, with Bz down to -12 nT. The solar wind speed is currently at 540 km/s (but still increasing) with interplanetary magnetic field magnitude of 7 nT. For the next 24 hours similar conditions can be expected.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels locally (K_Dourbes up to 4) and minor storm conditions globally (Kp up to 5). Unsettled to active conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 042, basierend auf 10 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 14 Oct 2022

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	121
AK Chambon La Forêt	030
AK Wingst	014
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	017
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	078 - Basierend auf 19 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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