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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2022 Oct 21 1248 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
21 Oct 2022	116	010
22 Oct 2022	135	005
23 Oct 2022	150	018

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels, with flare of largest X-ray output being the C5.9-class flare, possibly from the rotated NOAA Active Region (AR) 3122, peak time 20 October 16:53 UTC. The two active regions present on the visible solar disk have remained mainly stable. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares are expected while M-class flares are possible.

A possibly Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection was observed in Lasco/C2 data on 21 October 04:49 UTC. This is believed to be associated with a radio pulse on 21 October 04:08 UTC and a C1.6-class flare, peak time 21 October 04:32 UTC from NOAA active region 3126 as well as an EUV wave. A possible impact on Earth may be expected 27 October 04:59 UTC, with the caveat that the CME speed is rather low and said impact may not be too profound.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached the 1000 pfu alert threshold at 20 October 13:50 UTC. It can be expected be about threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at this level in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the SW speed gradually ranged from 350 to 490 km/s. The total magnetic field (Bt) had values from 3 to 6 nT, while its Bz component fluctuated between -6 to 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately on the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). Over the next 24 hours, the solar wind parameters are not expected to become greatly enhanced from current levels.

Geomagnetic conditions were active locally on 20 October 16:00 UTC (K Dourbes 4). In the next 24 hours the conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a slight chance of active conditions.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 051, basierend auf 13 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 20 Oct 2022

Wolf-Zahl Catania	047
10cm Solarflux	116
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	007
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	032 - Basierend auf 26 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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