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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2022 Dec 21 1245 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
21 Dec 2022	146	010
22 Dec 2022	146	011
23 Dec 2022	146	012

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity was at low levels with several C-class flares and one small M-class flare. The M1.1-class flare was from the sunspot region NOAA-AR 3169 peaking at 14:06 UTC on December 20. From the same region, a C6.9-class flare peaking at 05:18 UTC on December 21 occurred and was associated with a Type II Radio Emission observed at 05:22 UTC, which usually occurs in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event. The flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to increase as the sunspot region NOAA-AR 3169 become larger and more complex (beta- gamma magnetic complexity), with C-class flares, possible M-class flare, and a small chance of X-class flare.

Several coronal mass ejections flows were observed in the currently available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery and automatically detected by the Cactus tool over the past 24 hours. It is currently not possible to assess whether a coronal mass ejection was associated the Type II Radio Emission, more information will come when recent SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery will be available.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal to low levels and is expected to stay at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced. The solar wind speed remained slow around 350-400 km/s however, the total interplanetary magnetic field was enhanced and reached values up to 15.4 nT with the southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, ranging between -11.6 nT and 11.5 nT. The expected arrival of the high-speed stream (associated with the positive polarity, equatorial coronal hole that started to cross the central meridian on December 17) is not clear, may still arrive today. A new narrow coronal hole is currently facing Earth (positive polarity), the high-speed stream associated to this coronal holes may enhance the solar wind measurement near Earth in about 3 days from now.

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet with some periods of untested condition (NOAA-Kp=1-3, and K-BEL=1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet with periods of unsettled conditions in the next days, due to the arrival of the previously mentioned high-speed streams.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 100, basierend auf 05 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 20 Dec 2022

Wolf-Zahl Catania	158
10cm Solarflux	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	006
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	005
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	117 - Basierend auf 11 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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