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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2023 May 27 1253 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
27 May 2023	153	003
28 May 2023	153	004
29 May 2023	150	010

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity remained at moderate levels with two low M-class flares. The strongest activity was an M1.4 flare with start time 22:48 UTC, end time 23:25 UTC, peak time 23:03 UTC on May 26th from NOAA AR 3315 (beta), which developed more trailing spots and was responsible for most of the flaring activity over the past 24 hours. A couple of high C-class flaring was produced by NOAA AR 3314 (beta), which remained mostly unchanged. An impulsive M1.1-class flaring was produced by NOAA AR 3312 (beta) with peak time 14:46 UTC on May 26th and the region has shown slight decayed after. Isolated low C-class flaring was produced by NOAA AR 3310 (beta), which experienced significant decay and by NOAA 3311 (beta-gamma), which also showed signs of decay. The newly numbered region NOAA 3316 (beta) remained quiet and stable. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next days with 50% chances for M-class flaring.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Koronale Löcher

A negative polarity has crossed the central meridian and related enhancements in the solar wind near Earth could be observed on May 29th and May 30th.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influence of a high speed stream (HSS) from a negative polarity coronal hole. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 483 km/s to 591 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 5.4 nT and a minimum Bz of -4.6 nT. The B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to continue their decline towards nominal slow solar wind over the next days.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet with a single unsettled period over Belgium between 15:00 and 16:00 UTC on May 26th. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with chances for isolated unsettled or active conditions until the full passage of the waning high speed stream.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was entirely above the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain above the 1000 pfu threshold for prolonged periods in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next days.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 138, basierend auf 20 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 26 May 2023

Wolf-Zahl Catania	171
10cm Solarflux	149
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	007
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	007
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	143 - Basierend auf 32 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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