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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2023 Jul 03 1232 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
03 Jul 2023	174	010
04 Jul 2023	176	011
05 Jul 2023	174	010

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

The solar flaring activity reached high levels, with one X-class flare and one M-class flare being detected in the last 24 hours. The largest flares of the period were a long durational X1.1 flare, peaking at 23:14 UTC on July 02, associated with NOAA AR 3354 (beta- gamma-delta class), and an M1.4 flare, peaking at 06:53 UTC on July 03, associated with NOAA AR 3358 (beta class). NOAA AR 3354 region remains the largest and most complex active region on the disk and has been the main driver of the observed flaring activity observed, along with NOAA ARs 3358 and 3360 (alpha class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with a chance for isolated X-class flare.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

During the last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) indicated a return to a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed decreased from values around 460 km/s to 390 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was below 7 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -3 nT and 6 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected to prevail until July 04. On July 04-05 solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly elevated due to the anticipated arrival of a mild high-speed stream from a small equatorial coronal hole with a negative polarity.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet (NOAA-Kp: 1 to 2) with some unsettle period observed by the local stations (K-BEL: 1 to 3). The geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly quiet. On July 04 - 05, unsettled to active condition may be expected in response to the expected high-speed stream associated with the coronal hole (negative polarity) that transited the central meridian on July 01.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton was at the nominal levels in the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain below 10 pfu threshold over the next day, with a small chance that a particle event occurs in association with an X-class flare or a coronal mass ejection.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold for a short period. It is expected to remain close to the threshold for the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and it is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 153, basierend auf 17 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 02 Jul 2023

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	170
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	006
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	005
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	146 - Basierend auf 26 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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