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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2023 Aug 03 1234 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
03 Aug 2023	173	018
04 Aug 2023	173	015
05 Aug 2023	172	017

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

The solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with three M-class flares, all produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3380. The strongest reported flare was two GOES M1.7 flare which peaked at 14:52 UTC on Aug 02. Several C-class flares ranging from C2 to C9 were also produced in the last 24 hours: the brightest C9-class flare was produced NOAA AR 3380. For the next 24 hours, we are expecting several C-class flares and one or more M-class flare mainly from NOAA AR 3380. There are very likely a small chance of an X-flare.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hour. Only few coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed but all of them were slow and mostly narrow and no Earth-directed components were identified.

Koronale Löcher

An equatorial (negative polarity) coronal hole crossed the central meridian on Aug 01. The solar wind from this coronal hole is expected to enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on 3 and 4 Aug.

Sonnenwind

Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime, velocity ranging from 320 km/s to 390 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -9 and 3 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 2 nT to 10 nT. The solar wind speed may increase if the high speed stream from the coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on Aug 01 hits the Earth in the coming 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 4). We expect to see active to minor storm conditions if the high speed stream from the coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on Aug 01, hits the Earth.

Protonenflusswerte

The 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to stay below the threshold level for the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence continues to be at moderate to normal level. It is expected that this parameter to remain below the threshold level in the coming 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 156, basierend auf 11 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 02 Aug 2023

Wolf-Zahl Catania	207
10cm Solarflux	173
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	017
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	015
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	164 - Basierend auf 21 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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