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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2023 Aug 08 1240 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
08 Aug 2023	170	019
09 Aug 2023	170	017
10 Aug 2023	170	017

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3386 (Catania sunspot group 01) has been most active, producing several M-class flares, including an X1.5 class flare on August 07 peaking at 20:46 UTC. The second most active region was NOAA Active Region (AR) 3387 (Catania sunspot group 07) with several C and M-class flares. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3386 (Catania sunspot group 01) is now located at the west limb and is rotating over the far side of the Sun, however flaring activity may still be observed from the region. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate to high over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C and M-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected by the SIDC/Cactus tool in the SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph images on August 07 at 20:48. This is actually two different coronal mass ejections. One is a narrow (40-45 degrees) and very slow (200-250 km/s) CME with a principal angle of about 10 degrees (North-North-Est). The other CME is associate with the X1.5 class flare produced by the NOAA Active Region (AR) 3386 (Catania sunspot group 01), which was located at the west limb. Due to the source location, which was at the west limb, no Earth-directed component of this CME is expected.

Sonnenwind

The solar wind conditions were slightly enhanced over the past 24 hours. The passage of a solar wind structure with an unclear source was observed around 22:00 UTC on August 07 and 01:00 UTC on August 08. During that time the solar wind speed increased up to 600 km/s as recorded by ACE and DSCOVR, the density dropped and the phi angle was negative. This structure could be due to the coronal mass ejection arrival from August 04. The total interplanetary magnetic field gently decreased from 12 nT to the current values of 2-4 nT . The north-south component was predominantly negative and reached down to -8.8 nT . The coronal mass ejection from August 05 at 07:12 UTC is heading Earth and may disturb the solar wind conditions later around 12:00 UTC (+/- 12 hours). The second coronal mass ejection from August 05 at 22:25 UTC is not expected to disturb the solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled with period of active condition (NOAA Kp 1-4, K Belgium 1-4) over the past 24 hours. The active condition happened during the passage of this solar wind structure observed between 22:00 UTC on August 07 and 01:00 UTC on August 08. Due to the slight enhancement of the solar wind conditions, unsettle to active condition are expected due to the arrival of the coronal mass ejection from August 05 at 07:12 UTC.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux started to rise at 21:46 UTC on August 07 and crossed the 10 MeV warning threshold at 01:10 UTC on August 08 as measured by GOES. This proton event was following the X1.5 class flare that was observed on August 07 peaking at 20:46 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain above the 10 MeV warning threshold in the next day before decreasing. New event cannot be excluded due to the high flaring activity.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and is expected to remain at this level during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 125, basierend auf 18 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 07 Aug 2023

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	170
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	012
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	012
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	125 - Basierend auf 24 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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