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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2023 Aug 17 1252 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
17 Aug 2023	162	011
18 Aug 2023	164	010
19 Aug 2023	162	004

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C3.6 flare peaking at 02:46 UTC on August 17, this originated beyond the west limb possibly associated with NOAA AR3394, which is now on the backside. NOAA AR 3403 remains the most complex region on disk but was quiet. NOAA AR3407 was stable and produced low level C-class flares. Three new regions were numbered: NOAA ARs 3408, 3409, 3410. Two of these (NOAA ARs 3408, 3410) along with NOAA AR3406 decayed significantly. NOAA AR 3397 is about to rotate over the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and a low chance for isolated M-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

There were no other Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) detected in the available coronagraph observations.

Sonnenwind

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field was slightly enhanced and ranged between 4 and 10 nT. Bz had a minimum value of -8nT. The solar wind speed was increased slightly from 300km/s to values near 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun) from 15:00 UTC on August 16. Further enhancement in the solar wind parameters and could be expected on August 17 in response to the solar wind associated with the coronal holes, which began to cross the central meridian on August 12 and 13.

Geomagnetismus

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels globally (NOAA KP 1-3) with local active intervals (K-Bel 1-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet levels, with active periods possible on August 17 due to the solar wind associated to the coronal holes.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24 hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next days.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 156, basierend auf 12 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 16 Aug 2023

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	160
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	012
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	012
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	149 - Basierend auf 20 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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