Archiv von Sonntag, 27 August 2023 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2023 Aug 27 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
27 Aug 2023	140	007
28 Aug 2023	142	007
29 Aug 2023	144	007

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

There are six active regions visible on the disk. NOAA AR 3415 has beta-delta magnetic field configuration, it is capable of producing M-class flares. The rest of the active regions have simple alpha or beta magnetic field configuration. An M1.1 flare was observed peaking at 22:50 UTC on 26 August, from a region slightly behind the east limb. More M-class flares can be expected as this active region turns into view.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A partial halo CME, with angular width around 150 degrees erupted towards the east at 22:36 UTC on 26 August (as seen by LASCO-C2). It was related to the M1.1 flare above the east limb. The source region of the CME is slightly behind the east limb. Therefore it is not expected to affect the Earth. A wide CME (angular width around 90 degrees) erupted towards the west, first seen by LASCO-C2 at 13:25 UTC on 26 August. The source region of this CME, NOAA AR 3415, is located close to the west limb, only a shock at most could arrive to the Earth. Simultaneously, a faint CME can be observed erupting towards the south from NOAA AR 3413 (dimmings observed there). This CME has a possible Earth directed component, although it is faint, so if it arrives only a mild impact is expected. A possible arrival (although not very likely) of these two transients can be expected on August 29-30.

Sonnenwind

The solar wind arriving to the Earth is slow, with speeds around 400 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nt. Over the last 24 hours, we observed a period of several hours with interplanetary magnetic field up to 8 nT, and Bz reaching - 7 nT. This could be related to the arrival of the CME from 22 August, expected yesterday, although the signatures are too weak to confirm this. Slow wind conditions can be expected in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to active globally (NOAA KP 2-4) and unsettled locally (K Bel 2-3). The active period may be a consequence of the arrival of the CME from 22 August. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 083, basierend auf 15 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 26 Aug 2023

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	139
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	008
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	007
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	088 - Basierend auf 26 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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