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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2023 Sep 18 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
18 Sep 2023	138	011
19 Sep 2023	138	037
20 Sep 2023	138	007

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

There are six active regions visible on the disk. Only minor C-class flaring was observed in the last 24 hours. The active regions have simple alpha or beta magnetic field configuration. More C-class flaring is expected.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A partial halo CME was detected by LASCO/C2 at 13:25 UTC on 17 September. The source region of the CME is close to the SW limb, there are low chances of seeing a glancing blow at the Earth, or a shock at most, on 21 September.

Koronale Löcher

The fast solar wind from two small coronal holes may affect the Earth in the next 24-48 hours. One of them has positive polarity and is located in the southern hemisphere (close to the equator), the second one has negative polarity and is located in the northern hemisphere.

Sonnenwind

The solar wind data at Earth shows the arrival of an ICME, corresponding to the CME on 14 September. The interplanetary magnetic field reached 11 nT with Bz down to -7 nT and solar wind speeds around 430 km/s. Although the effects of this ICME are anticipated to diminish within the next 24 hours, another ICME event, corresponding to the CME from 16 September, is predicted to impact Earth on 19 September, potentially with greater intensity.

Geomagnetismus

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions have reached minor storm levels globally (Kp 5) and unsettled locally (K_Bel 3), due to the ICME arrival (from the CME on 14 September). Moderate storm levels (and up to major storm levels) can be expected when the ICME corresponding to the 16 September CME arrives to the Earth in about 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain so in t

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 125, basierend auf 14 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 17 Sep 2023

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	145
AK Chambon La Forêt	029
AK Wingst	016
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	017
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	097 - Basierend auf 17 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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