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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2023 Oct 06 1237 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
06 Oct 2023	157	010
07 Oct 2023	157	011
08 Oct 2023	157	007

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was quiet with only one small C-class flares beside the number of bipolar regions on the solar disc visible from Earth. There are currently 10 numbered active regions with alpha or beta magnetic field configurations. The most complex regions are NOAA AR 3451 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3452 (beta-gamma). The solar flaring activity is likely to be at quiet levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, and a low chance for isolated M-class flares and X-class flaring.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed on the West limb at 20:00 UTC on October 05 in the SOHO/LASCO images. The analysis indicated that the source of the CME was on the far side of the Sun. Therefore no impact on the solar wind condition near Earth is expected. No other Earth-directed CME have been detected in the last 24 hours in the available SOHO/LASCO images.

Sonnenwind

In the last 24 hours, the solar wind conditions near Earth were enhanced due to the arrival of solar wind streams associated to 2 small positive polarity coronal holes that crossed the central meridian on October 01 and 02. The total interplanetary magnetic field was ranging between 5.0 nT and 8.8 nT. The Bz-component of the interplanetary magnetic showed mainly negative values with a minimum value of -6.9 nT. The solar wind speed had values varying between 410 km/s and 497 km/s. The solar wind is expected to remain slightly enhanced before returning to nominal conditions.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were unsettled (K Bel 3, Kp-NOAA 3) due to the enhanced solar wind conditions. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the last 24 hours. It is expected to mostly remain at background level, however possible rise of the proton flux cannot be fully excluded due to the current number of complex regions on the disc.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES-16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected remains below the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 154, basierend auf 17 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 05 Oct 2023

Wolf-Zahl Catania	187
10cm Solarflux	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	019
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	020
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	169 - Basierend auf 22 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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