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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2023 Nov 02 1302 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
02 Nov 2023	162	009
03 Nov 2023	160	005
04 Nov 2023	161	012

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with an M1.4 flare, start time 11:37 UTC, end time 12:43 UTC, peak time 12:26 UTC on Nov 1st from an active region behind the east limb. This regions also produced multiple low to high C-class flaring. NOAA AR 3474 (beta-gamma) remains the largest and most complex active region on the visible disc and has produced multiple low C-class flaring and an impulsive M1.7 flare, start time 12:18 UTC, end time 12:26 UTC, peak time 12:22 UTC on Nov 2nd. The remaining low flaring activity as produced by NOAA AR 3472 (beta), which has shown some signs of decay. A new active region, NOAA AR 3478 (beta), has rotated from the east limb, but is relatively simply and has remained quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with likely C-class flares and increased chances for M-class flaring.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

The slow coronal mass ejection (CME) related to a south-east filament eruption reported yesterday and first seen in LASCO/C2 imagery at 22:24 UTC on Oct 31st is now modelled to have a possible glancing blow late on Nov 04th or early Nov 5th. A north-east partial halo CME is first observed in the LASCO/C2 data around 03:24 UTC on Nov 2nd. A possible source for this eruption could be a plage region in the north-east quadrant near the upper end of the large coronal hole in the eastern hemisphere. Post-erruptive arcade is visible in the possible source region after 04:00 UTC on Nov 2nd. The CME has been detected by STEREO COR2 with a projected velocity below 300 km/s. Preliminary analysis suggests chances for a possible glancing blow late on Nov 06th on Nov 07th with a rather low impact. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind velocity was below 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 5.1 nT and a minimum Bz of -4.3 nT. The B field remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at background slow solar wind levels until a possible glancing blow arrival late on Nov 04th or early on Nov 05th.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the upcoming days.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to continue so over the next days.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to oscillate around and above this threshold in the upcoming days.The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 127, basierend auf 08 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 01 Nov 2023

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	159
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	010
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	009
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	125 - Basierend auf 13 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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