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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2023 Oct 05 1242 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
05 Oct 2023	153	010
06 Oct 2023	153	012
07 Oct 2023	153	007

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was quiet with only one small C-class flare beside the number of complex regions on the solar disc visible from Earth. There are currently 8 numbered active regions with alpha or beta magnetic field configurations. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at quiet levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, and a low chance for isolated M-class flares and X-class flaring.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) have been detected in the last 24 hours in the available SOHO/LASCO images.

Sonnenwind

In the last 24 hours, the solar wind conditions near Earth were enhanced due to the arrival of solar wind streams associated to 2 small positive polarity coronal holes that crossed the central meridian on October 01 and 02. The total interplanetary magnetic field was ranging between 5.0 nT and 9.1 nT. The Bz-component of the interplanetary magnetic showed mainly negative values with a minimum value of -7.9 nT. The solar wind speed had values varying between 388 km/s and 478 km/s. The phi-angle was in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind is expected to remain slightly enhanced before returning to nominal conditions.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were unsettled locally (K Bel 3) and active (Kp-NOAA 4) due to the enhanced solar wind conditions. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain at background levels.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES-16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected remains below the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 170, basierend auf 14 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 04 Oct 2023

Wolf-Zahl Catania	206
10cm Solarflux	155
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	012
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	012
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	159 - Basierend auf 24 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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