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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2023 Oct 09 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
09 Oct 2023	157	006
10 Oct 2023	154	006
11 Oct 2023	151	014

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was low but frequent during the last 24 hours, with the brightest flares being a C7 and a C6 from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3451 (magnetic configuration Beta-Delta, Catania group 87). Most of the flaring activity was produced by the same AR, while NOAA AR 3448 (Catania group 99) and NOAA AR 3460 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma) also contributed significantly. More C-class flaring activity is highly expected in the next 24 hours and there is a good chance of M-class flare(s), particularly from NOAA AR 3451.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Koronale Löcher

A large equatorial corona hole with a negative magnetic polarity continues its crossing of the central meridian. An associated High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to become geo-effective at 11 Oct.

Sonnenwind

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 290 km/h and 350 km/h in the last 24 hours. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) was up to 7 nT and its North-South component (Bz) ranged between -6 and 7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately directed away for the Sun during the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remain in the slow SW regime in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet with a single 3-hour period of unsettled conditions globally (NOAA Kp 1- to 3-), while locally there were consistently quiet (K BEL 0 to 2) during the past 24 hours. They are expected to continue at quiet levels both globally and locally for the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, reached but did not exceed the 1000 pfu threshold for a few hours yesterday. For the next 24 hours it is expected to be above background but remain below the threshold.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 174, basierend auf 10 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 08 Oct 2023

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	157
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	007
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	007
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	150 - Basierend auf 20 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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