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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2023 Nov 29 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
29 Nov 2023	185	005
30 Nov 2023	182	010
01 Dec 2023	180	027

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was high during the past 24 hours with an M9 flare emitted from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3500 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania group 65) yesterday at 19:50 UTC. NOAA AR 3499 (magnetic type Beta, Catania group 53) produced a C8 flare yesterday at 23:31 UTC, while NOAA AR 3502 (magnetic type Beta, Catania group 64) emitted a C6 flare today at 08:03 UTC. More M-class flaring activity is likely in the next 24 hours, particularly from NOAA AR 3500. There is also a small chance of an isolated X-class flare from the same AR.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A full halo Corona Mass Ejection (CME) was automatically detected by CACTus as launched yesterday at 20:24 UTC. It is associated with an M9 flare and is expected to become geo-effective during the second half of 1 Dec.

Sonnenwind

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions remained stable during the last 24 hours. The SW speed varied from 420 to 500 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) was between 3 and 5 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -4 and 4 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was mostly directed away from the Sun in the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remain in the slow SW regime for approximately the next 12 hours. One or more Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) are likely to arrive as one disturbance in the second half of tomorrow.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet globally (NOAA Kp 1 to 2) and quiet to unsettled locally (K BEL 1 to 3) during the last 24 hours. They are expected to increase to active conditions in the next 24 hours as a result of a possible arrival of one or more Coronal Mass Ejections (CME).

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 167, basierend auf 11 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 28 Nov 2023

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	182
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	007
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	007
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	148 - Basierend auf 27 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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