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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2023 Nov 23 1252 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
23 Nov 2023	190	008
24 Nov 2023	220	014
25 Nov 2023	270	016

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours. Recurrent NOAA Active Region (AR) 3474 is about to rotate on-disk, exhibiting flaring activity while a filament eruption in the area is visible. From the large cluster of ARs on the NE, NOAA AR 3492 has developed further, but with the cluster being is fairly stable. NOAA AR 3484 is believed to be the source of the flare with the highest output in X-ray over the past 24 hours, the M1.5 flare, which peaked at 23 November 03:38 UT. A new sunspot group emerged in the south-west quadrant (Catania sunspot group 60, NOAA AR 3498).

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A full halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was seen in Lasco C2 on 22 November 21:12UT and reported by Cactus. Analysis shows that it may consist of two concurrent CMEs. Two fronts appear visible, one with a SE orientation, possibly associated with activity seen in active region NOAA 3489 and a second front with SW orientation, with an unknown source. ICME arrival is estimated to be about early 26 November. A second full halo CME was reported by Cactus, seen in Lasco on 23 November 03:36UT. It consists of a succession of what is believed to be back-sided CMEs, combined with a CME probably associated with a filament eruption from recurrent NOAA Active Region 3474. These are currently not believed to have an Earth-directed component.

Koronale Löcher

A mid latitude coronal hole positive coronal hole is currently crossing central meridian.

Sonnenwind

High speed stream influences have been waning, with solar wind parameters returning to slow wind conditions. The interplanetary magnetic field dropped to 2 nT, remaining in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). Solar wind speed has dropped to about 440km/s. Over the next 2 hours solar wind conditions are expected to return towards background levels. High speed stream influences and a slight chance of a glancing blow from CME on 22/11 06:48UT can be expected about 25 November.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions reached active conditions(NOAA Kp and K BEL 4) over the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux crossed the 1000 pfu threshold on 22 November 22:20UT, as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to be at moderate levels in the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was close to moderate levels, it is expected be at moderate levels for the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 198, basierend auf 08 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 22 Nov 2023

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	190
AK Chambon La Forêt	034
AK Wingst	034
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	032
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	167 - Basierend auf 19 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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