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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2023 Dec 22 1259 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
22 Dec 2023	193	007
23 Dec 2023	193	013
24 Dec 2023	192	012

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

The solar flaring activity was at moderate level during the last 24 hours, with several C-class flares and a M-class flare. The strongest flare was GOES M3.3 flare from NOAA AR 3519 which peaked at 00:04 UTC on Dec 22. There were several c-class flare from the same active region. During the flare, the source region (AR 3519) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with few C-class flares, possibly M-class flares and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

The newly arrived observations (feeling the SDO AIA datagap) show eruption of a large prominence situated close to the western solar limb. The associated CME, which was observed at 04:00 UTC on Dec 21, has an angular width of about 90 degree and it will not probably arrive to the Earth. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hour.

Koronale Löcher

A negative polarity coronal hole (CH), possibly connected to the southern polar CH spanning from 30 - 55 S, crossed the central meridian on Dec 20 and a high speed stream from this CH may arrive to Earth from Dec 22.

Sonnenwind

Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime, velocity ranging from 340 km/s to 380 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -5 and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 2 nT to 7 nT. The fast solar wind originating from the negative polarity coronal hole (CH), possibly connected to the southern polar CH spanning from 30 - 55 S, which reached the central meridian in the morning of Dec 18 is expected to impact the Earth in the coming hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally at quiet conditions (NOAA Kp 1 to 2). It was locally quiet to unsettled conditions (K BEL 1 to 3). We expect to see unsettled to active conditions if the fast solar wind originating from the negative polarity coronal hole (CH), possibly connected to the southern polar CH spanning from 30 - 55 S, which reached the central meridian in the morning of Dec 18 impacts the Earth in the coming hours.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, is still fluctuating around the 1000 pfu threshold level, probably due to the enhanced solar wind speed on previous days. We expect such a condition to last during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal to moderate levels and is expected to decrease to normal level in the coming 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 149, basierend auf 04 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 21 Dec 2023

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	194
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	006
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	004
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	153 - Basierend auf 05 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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