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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2023 Dec 30 1256 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
30 Dec 2023	142	005
31 Dec 2023	140	009
01 Jan 2024	140	030

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

The solar flaring activity remained at low levels. There are only five numbered active regions on the visible disc, most of them in the western hemisphere. The strongest activity was marked by a C3.2 flare, peak time 07:47 UTC on Dec 30th, produced by NOAA AR 3530 (beta). This region was responsible for all the notable flaring activity over the past 24 hour as it approaches the west limb. NOAA AR 3529 has now rotated behind the west limb and has been quiet. The remaining regions on disc have been mostly stable and inactive. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the coming days with probable C-class flares and low chances for isolated M-class flaring.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A large filament eruption is visible in the SDO/AIA images from UTC morning till UTC late afternoon on Dec 29th. Despite the big eruption, no related coronal mass ejection (CME) is visible in the available coronagraph imagery. Another filament eruption with clear on- disc signatures is observed in the south-east quadrant after 08:00 UTC on Dec 30th. Preliminary analysis suggested no foreseen impact on Earth, but further coronagraph data is awaited for further analysis of any potential Earth-directed component or the related CME. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Koronale Löcher

The large negative polarity equatorial coronal hole and now extended to high latitudes and the high latitude parts of it continue to reside on the central meridian. The high speed stream related to this coronal hole could arrive to Earth on Dec 31st or Jan 1st and is expected to last for several days.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained mildly disturbed by an ICME arrival, most probably related to the weak slow partial halo CME from Dec 25th. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 336 to 426 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum value of 11.8 nT with a minimum Bz of -4.8 nT. The B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions in the next 24 hours are expected to return to nominal solar wind conditions and be disturbed on Dec 31st, Jan 1st and Jan 2nd with an anticipated high speed stream arrival from a large negative polarity coronal hole.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet with a few isolated unsettled periods resisted over Belgium. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible isolated unsettled periods. Quiet to active conditions with likely minor storm levels and possible isolated moderate storms can be expected with the anticipated high speed stream arrival on Dec 31st and Jan 1st.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to continue so over the next days.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days.The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 070, basierend auf 07 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 29 Dec 2023

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	143
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	006
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	006
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	087 - Basierend auf 14 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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