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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Jan 09 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
09 Jan 2024	174	012
10 Jan 2024	176	008
11 Jan 2024	176	007

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

The solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C5.7-flare, with peak time 15:50 UTC on January 08, associated with NOAA AR 3538 (beta). There are currently 9 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3536 (beta-gamma), and NOAA AR 3540 (beta-gamma) are the most magnetically complex regions on disk. Together with NOAA AR 3538, they have produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. Additionally, one active region is rotating from the east limb and one is emerging in the south-east quadrant. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares possible.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

Based on currently available coronagraph images, there were three CMEs detected in the past 24 hours (first detection by SOHO/LASCO C2 around 13:25 UTC on January 08, 16:12 UTC on January 08, and 01:25 UTC on January 09, respectively). For all the three CMEs, the source region was in the south-east quadrant of the solar disk (around E56S22). No clear Earth-directed component has been identified, and at most we expect a glancing blow in about 4 days. However, further analysis is on-going.

Koronale Löcher

Two small high latitude positive polarity coronal holes, one in the northern half of the Sun and the other in the southern half, finished crossing the central meridian in the early hours (UTC) of January 09. No impact from these coronal holes is expected at Earth.

Sonnenwind

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed as measured by ACE was between 315 km/s and 380 km/s. A small solar wind structure was observed around 18:00 UTC on January 08, which was associated with a minor increase in the solar wind speed and density. The total interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 4 nT and 8 nT, with the Bz (north-south) component reaching a minimum value of -6 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (away from the Sun). In the next 24 hours, we expect similar slow solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally and locally quiet with unsettled conditions (Kp 3 and K Bel 3) due to the prologued negative Bz conditions. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was enhanced but below the 10 pfu threshold and continues to gently decline. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease in the coming days, although due to the number of complex regions currently on the disk, we cannot exclude the possibility of new proton events in the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 144, basierend auf 13 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 08 Jan 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	196
10cm Solarflux	176
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	004
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	004
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	159 - Basierend auf 13 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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