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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Jan 12 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
12 Jan 2024	182	006
13 Jan 2024	184	014
14 Jan 2024	186	007

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. Four M-flares were observed: an M1.5-flare (peak time at 17:52 UTC on January 11) from NOAA AR 3539 (beta), an M1.4-flare (peak time at 12:51 UTC on January 11) and an M1.2-flare (peak time at 19:23 UTC on January 11) associated with NOAA AR 3538 (beta, now rotated over the west limb), and an M1.1-flare (peak time at 02:58 UTC on January 12) from NOAA AR 3547 (beta). Additionally, several C-flares were detected. There are currently 9 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3541 (beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex region on the disk, but it did not produce flares in the past 24 hours. Additionally, one unnumbered active region, which is currently emerging in the north-east quadrant of the solar disk, produced four C-flares in the past 24 hours. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares probable.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

Based on currently available coronagraph images from SOHO/LASCO, one partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected around 06:00 UTC on January 11, following a filament eruption in the north- east quadrant of the solar disk (around 05:30 UTC on January 11 from E55N30). No clear Earth-directed component has been identified, and at most we expect a glancing blow in about 4 days. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the past 24 hours.

Sonnenwind

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed as measured by ACE ranged between 450 km/s and 475 km/s, although we report a data gap from 22:08 UTC on January 11 to present times. DSCOVR data indicate the solar wind was ranging between 475 km/s and 495 km/s in the morning (UTC) of January 12. The total interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 3 nT and 6 nT, with the Bz (north-south) component reaching a minimum value of -3 nT. The phi-angle transitioned from the positive (away from the Sun) to the negative sector (towards the Sun) around 06:37 UTC on January 12. In the next 24 hours, we expect similar slow solar wind conditions, with a chance of disturbed conditions due to the possible arrival of the coronal mass ejection (CME) first observed on January 06 around 15:12 UTC in SOHO/LASCO coronagraphs, and of the CME first observed on January 09 around 01:25 UTC.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet (Kp 2) and locally quiet to unsettled (K Bel 3). Due to the possible arrival of coronal mass ejections from January 06 and January 09, unsettled conditions with short periods of active conditions are possible in the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is at background level, and is expected to remain at background level in the past 24 hours. However, due to the number of complex regions currently on the disk, we cannot exclude the possibility of new proton events in the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 184, basierend auf 09 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 11 Jan 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	193
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	005
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	185 - Basierend auf 24 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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