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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Feb 17 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
17 Feb 2024	167	005
18 Feb 2024	164	007
19 Feb 2024	162	007

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with one M-class flare and several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a M3.0 flare, peaking at 22:09 UTC on Feb 16, associated with NOAA AR 3576, which was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 3576 has now rotated over the west limb, while NOAA 3582 (beta) and NOAA 3589 (beta) are approaching the limb. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3583 (beta) and by NOAA 3586 (alpha). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with possible M-class flaring and a chance for X-class flares mostly from NOAA AR 3576.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected at 03:12 UTC on Feb 16, in LASCO C2 data. The CME is associated with a filament eruption, observed from 00:48 UTC on February 16, in SDO/AIA 304 and 193 in the north-west quadrant of the visible solar disk. The CME is directed primarily to the North from the Earth's perspective and the bulk of the ejection will miss Earth, while a mild glancing blow arrival might be possible late on Feb 19th - early on Feb 20th. Another wide CME was detected at 09:24 UTC on February 16, in LASCO C2 data. The CME is associated with a X2.5 flare, originating from NOAA AR 3576, along with a Type II and Type IV radio bursts. The CME is directed primarily to the South-West from the Earth's perspective and will likely miss the Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (measured by ACE) were reflecting near slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased from values around 410 km/s to 340 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained below 8 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -6 nT and 8 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to prevail during the next days, with a chance for a weak enhancement late on Feb 19th early on Feb 20th due to possible glancing blow arrival associated with the Feb 16th filament eruption.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and quiet to unsettled locally over Belgium (NOAA-Kp: 1 to 2 and K-BEL: 1 to 3). Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected to prevail during the next days. Unsettled to isolated active levels might be reached on Feb 19 – Feb 20 related to possible glancing blow ICME arrival.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux continued to decrease and, although still slightly elevated, remained below the 10pfu threshold. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease over the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 115, basierend auf 11 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 16 Feb 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	169
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	004
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	147 - Basierend auf 11 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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