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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Feb 24 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
24 Feb 2024	175	008
25 Feb 2024	177	016
26 Feb 2024	179	007

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. Six M-class flares were produced by NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-delta). The largest flare was a M4.5-flare, with peak time 06:34 UTC on February 24. There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest, most magnetically complex region and has produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3586 (alfa) has been stable and inactive. NOAA AR 3591 (alfa), NOAA AR 3592 (beta) and NOAA AR 3594 (beta) have rotated over the east limb. NOAA AR 3593 (beta) has emerged on the solar disk close to the west limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares possible and a chance for an X-class flare.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)s have been observed in the last 24 hours.

Koronale Löcher

Two negative polarity coronal holes have passed the central meridian. One in the northern half of the Sun at high latitude and the other in the Southern half at low latitude. A high-speed stream from the southern coronal hole is expected to impact the Earth early on the 25th of February.

Sonnenwind

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed fluctuated between 290 km/s to 362 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 2 nT and 7 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -5 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods on the positive sector. In the next 24 hours, the solar wind conditions are expected to become disturbed due to the arrival of a high-speed stream associated with a negative polarity coronal hole and the possible glancing blow arrival of a CME from February 21.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet (Kp 1-2 and K Bel 1-2). Unsettled to active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. Some enhancements are possible in the case of an eruptive activity from NOAA AR 3590.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 105, basierend auf 14 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 23 Feb 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	134
10cm Solarflux	173
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	003
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	003
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	104 - Basierend auf 19 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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