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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Mar 12 1232 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
12 Mar 2024	127	007
13 Mar 2024	125	016
14 Mar 2024	123	007

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

There are four active regions visible on the solar disk. NOAA AR 3599 is the only one with a complex magnetic field configuration (beta-gamma-delta), and producing most of the recent flaring. The strongest flare was a C3.9, that peaked at 11:35 UTC, from NOAA AR 3599. M-class flares can be expected, X-class flares are possible.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours.

Koronale Löcher

An equatorial (positive polarity) coronal hole crossed the central meridian on March 10. The high speed solar wind from this coronal hole may arrive at Earth on 13 March.

Sonnenwind

The Earth is inside slow solar wind, with speeds close to 420 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. Similar solar wind conditions can be expected over the next 24 hours. A high speed stream and a glancing blow from the 11 March CME will probably create disturbed conditions in the second half of 13 March.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA_Kp up to 3 and K_BEL up to 2). Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. After that, a glancing blow from the 11 March CME and a high speed stream could arrive on 13 March and cause active conditions.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was slightly above the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal level and is expected to remain so.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 093, basierend auf 07 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 11 Mar 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	108
10cm Solarflux	127
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	004
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	004
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	074 - Basierend auf 14 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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