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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Mar 23 1232 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
23 Mar 2024	195	009
24 Mar 2024	190	030
25 Mar 2024	185	017

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was very high during the last 24 hours with an X1.1 flare detected today at 01:33 UTC. It was produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3614 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group 21) after a long period of low activity (the last M-class flare was on 18 Mar). NOAA AR 3615 (magnetic configuration Beta- Gamma-Delta, Catania sunspot group 22) continues to be the most magnetically complex region and has produced five M-class flares during the last 24 hours (the brightest being an M4 yesterday at 20:32 UTC). Further M-class flare activity is expected in the next 24 hours, mostly from NOAA AR 3614 and 3615. There is also a chance of an isolated X-class flare either from NOAA AR 3614 or 3615.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A full halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images as launched today at 01:36 UTC. It is associated with an X-class flare that took place close to the solar meridian and is expected to arrive on the Earth's environment on 26 Mar.

Sonnenwind

During the past 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions remained affected by the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that first arrived on 21 Mar and were further disturbed by the arrival of a short-lasted High Speed Stream (HSS). The SW speed varied between 330 and 380 km/s until the arrivals of the HSS yesterday at 17:30 UTC. During this event the SW speed increased to 500 km/s and dropped back to previous levels when the HSS ended yesterday at 23:00 UTC. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) varied between 5 and 13 nT, while its North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -10 and 8 nT during the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly directed away from the Sun in the last 24 hours.During the passing of the HSS the Bt remained constant at 10 nT, the Bz at 5 nT and the angle phi was directed towards the Sun. In the next 24 hours the effects of the CME are expected to continue to wane, however, a Co-rotating Interactive Region (CIR) is expected to arrive ahead of a HSS.

Geomagnetismus

The global geomagnetic conditions were quiet yesterday (NOAA Kp 1- to 1+) but increased to minor storm levels (NOAA Kp 5 at 03:00 to 06:00 UTC and 5- at 06:00 to 09:00 UTC) today. The local conditions fluctuated between unsettled and quiet levels (K BEL 1 to 3) during the past 24 hours. In the next 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions are expected to increase again to unsettled and possibly active levels as a result of the arrival of a Co-rotating Interactive Region (CIR) expected ahead of a HSS.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux started to rise from nominal levels today at 04:00 UTC and exceeded the 10 pfu threshold at 08:25 UTC. It has continued to rise rapidly and is expected to pick above the 100 pfu level in the next hours. The flux is very likely to remain above the 10 pfu alert level for the whole of the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 160, basierend auf 17 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 22 Mar 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	198
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	012
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	011
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	164 - Basierend auf 17 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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