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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Apr 16 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
16 Apr 2024	191	018
17 Apr 2024	191	019
18 Apr 2024	191	024

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was at moderate level, with multiple C-class flares and four M-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare of the period was an M4.0 flare, peaking at 19:32 UTC on Apr 15, associated with NOAA AR 3639. NOAA AR 3639 became magnetically more complex (from beta to beta-gamma class) and was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours together with NOAA AR 3634 (beta class), NOAA AR 3638 (beta class) and NOAA AR 3643 (beta class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares possible and a low chances of X- class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A faint partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data from 06:48 UTC on Apr 15. The CME is directed primarily to the North from the Earth's perspective and is likely associated with a small filament eruption near NOAA AR 3636. Current analysis suggests that this CME may have an Earth directed component, with a predicted arrival time of late on Apr 17 - early on Apr 18.

Sonnenwind

At the beginning of the period, the solar wind parameters were reflecting slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed was approximately 330 km/s; the total interplanetary magnetic field was below 5 nT. The solar wind conditions became slightly disturbed from around 17:26 UTC on December 15, with the total interplanetary magnetic field reaching the values up to 12 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -10 nT and 5 nT. This is probably associated with the arrival of a faint halo CME observed on Apr 12. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated due to the ICME passage with a chance of a week enhancement late on Dec 17- early on Dec 18 due to anticipated arrival of CME from Apr 14.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to active globally (NOAA-Kp=1-4). Locally only quiet to unsettled(K-Bel=2-3) conditions were observed over Belgium. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with a remaining possibility for isolated active periods.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 178, basierend auf 10 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 15 Apr 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	192
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	008
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	007
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	164 - Basierend auf 25 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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