Archiv von Samstag, 4 Mai 2024 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 May 04 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
04 May 2024	160	011
05 May 2024	164	013
06 May 2024	168	017

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at high levels. The largest flare was a M9.1-flare, with peak time 06:19 UTC on May 04 associated with NOAA AR 3663 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3663 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest region on disk and together with NOAA AR 3664 (beta-gamma-delta) the most magnetically complex regions, which both produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. Three yet unnumbered active region have started to emerge on the eastern half of the visible solar disk. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at high levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares expected and X-class flares possible.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), was detected at 21:17 UTC on May 03, in LASCO C2 data. The CME is associated with an eruption seen in SDO/AIA 193 at 20:48 UTC. Further analysis is ongoing. Further analysis of the CME, seen at 12:01 UTC on May 02, in LASCO C2 data, associated with NOAA AR 3654 shows that this CME is not expected to impact the Earth. Further analysis of the CME, seen at 03:01 UTC on May 03, associated with NOAA AR 3663 and a X1.7-flare shows a possible arrival late on May 05 or early on May 06.

Sonnenwind

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed gently declined from around 440 km/s to around 360 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 2 nT and 5 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -2 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) until 18:30 UTC on May 03 when it switched to the positive sector. The solar wind is may become perturbed on late on May 04, due to possible glancing blow ICME arrival.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (Kp 1-2) and quiet to unsettled locally (K_Bel 1-3). Unsettled to active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 161, basierend auf 12 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 03 May 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	155
10cm Solarflux	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	008
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	009
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	152 - Basierend auf 22 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

Alle Zeiten in UTC

<< Zum Tagesübersicht