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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 May 10 1301 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

X-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Sonnenprotonen

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
10 May 2024	235	051
11 May 2024	236	119
12 May 2024	237	043

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

The solar flaring activity was at high levels with several M-class flares and two X-class flares during the last 24 hours. The strongest reported flare was GOES X4.0 flare which peaked at 06:54 UTC on May 10, produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3664. During the flare, source region (AR 3664) of the flare had beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at high to very high levels over the next 24 hours possibly with M-class flares and chance for X-class flare.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed on SOHO/LASCO-C2 images around 07:12 UTC on May 10. This CME is associated with a X4.0 flare, which peaked at 06:54 UTC, produced by NOAA AR 3664. Associated type II and type IV radio emissions were detected at 06:46 UTC and 06:51 UTC, respectively. This CME has a projected speed of about 694 km/s (as measured by the Cactus tool). The corresponding ICME is expected to impact the Earth on May 12.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours, interplanetary magnetic field was slightly disturbed. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -6 and 4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 0 nT to 7 nT. The solar wind speed ranged from 450 km/s to 370 km/s. Enhanced solar wind parameters associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME) arrival are expected as multiple CMEs associated with flaring activity from NOAA AR 3664, observed on May 08-09, possibly impact Earth late on May 10 or May 11.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3). In the next 24 hours, moderate to severe storm conditions (K 6 to 8) are expected as multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with flaring activity from NOAA AR 3664, observed on May 08-09, possibly impact Earth late on May 10 or May 11.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux started to increase around 11:00 UTC on May 09, associated with coronal mass ejections and flaring activities from NOAA AR 3664. It is increasing but still remains below the 10 pfu threshold level. In the next 24 hours, it may possibly cross the threshold level.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 166, basierend auf 24 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 09 May 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	233
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	009
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	008
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	171 - Basierend auf 22 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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