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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 May 12 1323 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Sonnenprotonen

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
12 May 2024	212	080
13 May 2024	211	041
14 May 2024	210	025

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels with few M-class flares during the last 24 hours. The strongest reported flare was GOES M8.9 flare which peaked at 15:25 UTC on May 11, produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3664. During the flare, source region (AR 3664) of the flare had beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours possibly with few M-class flares and a chance for X-class flare.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed on SOHO/LASCO-C2 images around 16:24 UTC on May 11. This CME is associated with a M8.9 flare, which peaked at 15:25 UTC, produced by NOAA AR 3664. This CME has a projected speed of about 1000 km/s. A glancing blow, associated with this CME, can be expected at the Earth on May 13. A narrow CME of about 50 degree width, possibly associated with a prominence eruption, was observed on SW limb in LASCO-C2 images around 19:12 UTC on May. It is predominantly south directed so it will not arrive at Earth. Another possibly partial halo CME was observed in LASCO-C2 images around 02:00 UTC on May 12. This is possibly associated with a filament eruption on the SE quadrant of the Sun. It has a width of about 90 degree and speed of about 600 km/s. A glancing blow, associated with this CME, can be expected at the Earth late on May 14 or early on May 15.

Sonnenwind

In the last 24 hours, the Earth was still under the influence of arrivals of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and also possibly the arrivals of high speed streams, which originated from two coronal holes that started to cross the central meridian on May 08. A first shock-like structure was detected in the solar wind data around 17:55 UTC on May 11. The interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 8 nT to 47 nT, the solar wind speed jumped from 800 km/s to 895 km/s. Another shock-like structure was detected around 08:59 UTC on May 12. The interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 5 nT to 12 nT, the solar wind speed jumped from 830 km/s to 900 km/s. These shock-like structures are related to the arrival of ICMEs. The solar wind speed ranged from 700 km/s to 1000 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 3 nT to 28 nT. The North- South component (Bz) ranged between -29 to 15 nT. Enhanced solar wind parameters associated with arrivals of an ICME (CMEs observed on May 11, produced by NOAA AR 3664) and high speed streams originating from two coronal holes, which started to cross the central meridian on May 08, are expected in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions decreased to active condiitons (NOAA Kp=4) globally and unsettled conditions (K BEL=3) locally. We expect active to moderate storm levels in the next 24 hours due to the possible arrival of an ICME (associated to CME observed on May 11, produced by NOAA AR 3664) and high speed streams, which originated from two coronal holes that started to cross the central meridian on May 08.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux dropped just below the 10 pfu threshold level 11:40 UTC on May 12. The greater than 50 MeV GOES proton flux dropped below the 10 pfu threshold level at 17:00 UTC on May 11 and it is decreasing. There is a possibility that the proton flux greater than 10 MeV may start to increase again in the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 185, basierend auf 22 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 11 May 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	214
AK Chambon La Forêt	229
AK Wingst	315
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	335
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	162 - Basierend auf 24 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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