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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Jun 30 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
30 Jun 2024	186	007
01 Jul 2024	188	013
02 Jul 2024	190	030

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was at low levels, with several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare of the period was a C5.9 flare, peaking at 15:38 UTC on June 29, associated with NOAA AR 3734 (beta class). There are currently 15 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3734, which has now rotated onto the visible disk, was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA ARs 3723 (beta class), 3728 (beta class), and 3731 (alpha class). NOAA ARs 3719 (beta) and 3720 (beta) are approaching the west limb and remained quiet. Other regions on the disk have simple configurations of their photospheric magnetic fields (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares probable and a chance of M-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data starting at 16:00 UTC on June 29. The CME is directed primarily to the southwest from the Earth's perspective and is associated with a large filament eruption that occurred in the southwestern quadrant around 15:12 UTC on June 29. The CME is estimated to have an Earth-directed component and is expected to arrive at Earth late on July 2. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected the waning influence of the ICME. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude decreased from 10 nT to 7 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 430 km/s and 480 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -8 nT and 8 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). Solar wind parameters are expected to return to slow solar wind conditions over the next few days, with a chance of a weak enhancement on July 1 due to the possible arrival of CMEs from June 27-28 and late on July 2 due to the possible arrival of the June 29 CME.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled both globally and locally (NOAA Kp = 1-3, K-Bel = 1-3). Mostly quiet conditions are expected over the next days. Isolated active levels and minor storm levels might be reached on July 1-2 due to the possible arrival of the June 27-29 CMEs.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 207, basierend auf 11 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 29 Jun 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	186
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	018
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	020
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	212 - Basierend auf 24 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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