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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Jul 02 1232 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
02 Jul 2024	171	014
03 Jul 2024	176	013
04 Jul 2024	180	010

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels, with several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C3.6-flare, with peak time 22:33 UTC on July 01 associated with a yet unnumbered active region behind the east limb. There are currently 12 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3729 (beta-gamma) was the largest and most magnetically complex region on disk. NOAA AR 3729 (beta-gamma) produced most of the flares in the last 24 hours together with a region or regions behind the east limb. NOAA AR 3723 has turned into a plague region. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely and a small chance for a X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), was detected at 11:24 UTC on July 01, in LASCO C2 data. The CME is associated with a M2.17-flare, with peak time 11:02 UTC on July 01. Further analysis is ongoing. Further analysis of the CME, seen at 14:48 UTC on June 30 in LASCO C2 data, shows that this CME is not expected to impact the Earth.

Koronale Löcher

A small positive polarity high-latitude coronal hole (CH) has started to cross the central meridian. The associated high-speed stream from this CH is not expected to impact the Earth.

Sonnenwind

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed varied within 385 – 504 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 2 nT and 3 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -3 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative sector. The solar wind is may become perturbed late on July 02, due to the possible ICME arrival of a June 29 CME.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet (Kp 1-2 K_Bel 1-2). Unsettled to active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 203, basierend auf 09 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 01 Jul 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	196
10cm Solarflux	171
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	006
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	008
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	195 - Basierend auf 19 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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